E ective Bandwidth and Fast Simulation of ATMIntree Networks

We consider the eecient estimation, via simulation, of very low buuer overrow probabilities in certain acyclic ATM queueing networks. We apply the theory of eeective bandwidths and Markov additive processes to derive an asymptotically optimal simulation scheme for estimating such probabilities for a single queue with multiple independent sources, each of which may be either a Markov modulated process or an autoregressive processes. This result extends earlier work on queues with either independent arrivals or with a single Markov modulated arrival source. The results are then extended to estimating loss probabilities for intree networks of such queues. Experimental results show that the method can provide many orders of magnitude reduction in variance in complex queueing systems that are not amenable to analysis.